First the current WEDGIE.
Now for what I consider SPOT on ANALYSIS from the CHART SCHOOL at www.stockcharts.com, while on a differing time scale ( days vs weeks) we see the results being very close if not exactly the same.
I consider this an outstanding comparison..........
symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.
Even though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.
- Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.
- Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
- Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
- Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
- Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
- Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can taken as bearish confirmation.